Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
