A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
